The Pacific Division continues to be one of the most talent-filled divisions in the NBA, providing fantasy basketball managers with a wealth of options. Here’s a breakdown of the key Players to Watch, Breakout Candidates, and Players to Avoid for the 2024/25 season, giving you essential insights for your fantasy drafts.

Players to Watch

These players are proven fantasy assets, consistently delivering production across multiple categories. Their roles in the upcoming season make them prime targets for fantasy basketball managers.

James Harden (LAC, PG/SG)

What to Watch For: After a productive first season with the Clippers as the third option behind Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, Harden now finds himself in a position to take control. With George’s move to Philadelphia, Harden has moved up in the offensive hierarchy, and Leonard’s frequent injury problems mean Harden could often become the Clippers’ primary scoring and playmaking option. While his days of Houston-level production may be behind him, Harden could easily average 20 points, 10 assists, 3 three-pointers, and 1.5 steals per game. With an ADP of 17.4, he’s positioned to exceed expectations, especially with his increased role and freedom to run the offense.

Bronny LeBron James (LAL, SF/PF)

What to Watch For: LeBron James is defying time, aging gracefully both on the court and in fantasy basketball. As the oldest player in the league, LeBron continues to maintain elite form, stabilizing his three-point shot at an impressive 40%, while still shooting over 53% from the field. Interestingly, his fantasy value has increased as he gets to the free-throw line less often, and he’s now shooting well over 75% from the line, a significant improvement over earlier in his career. In fantasy, the only real downside with LeBron is turnovers, but his consistent production across almost every other category is remarkable. While his steady production might seem “boring,” it’s actually unprecedented. LeBron’s ADP of 23.8 is more than fair, as he finished last season as the 17th-best player in roto per game, and he’s ranked 21st in our current fantasy rankings. For managers who draft LeBron, there’s a chance his drive to play alongside his son could push him to perform even better than last year. LeBron’s fantasy reliability, paired with the sentimental value of watching a legend in his final years, makes him one of the safest yet exciting picks.

Bradley Beal (PHX, SG)

What to Watch For: Beal had a solid first season in Phoenix and, after overcoming some early health issues, performed at a top-50 roto level. Heading into the 2024/25 season, Beal will benefit from playing alongside a true point guard in Tyus Jones, whose passing should help Beal improve his efficiency. If Beal can stay healthy, he has the potential to easily exceed his ADP of 74.4, providing reliable production in points (18+), rebounds (4+), assists (4+), and threes (2 per game). With improved efficiency and fewer turnovers, Beal offers great value in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts.

Breakout Candidates

These players are primed to take a major leap in production this season. With increased opportunity or development, they have the potential to greatly exceed their current draft value.

Jonathan Kuminga (GSW, SF/PF)

Why He Could Break Out: Kuminga is poised for a breakout season after earning a larger role in the Warriors’ rotation during 2023/24. Between January and March, he recorded eight consecutive games with 20+ points, highlighting his offensive potential. Now, Kuminga has a legitimate chance to become the second-most important player in Golden State’s offense, especially given his unique combination of athleticism and ability to attack the rim. With the Warriors depending on him to help maintain their playoff push, Kuminga could average over 20 points per game. If he can improve his free-throw shooting and increase his three-point accuracy, Kuminga has the potential to rise into the top 80 or even challenge for the top 50. His development as a shooter will ultimately determine his ceiling, but his potential makes him a must-watch breakout candidate.

Brandin Podziemski (GSW, SG)

Why He Could Break Out: Podziemski had a surprisingly strong rookie season, earning a key spot in the Warriors’ rotation. With Klay Thompson now in Dallas, Podziemski is expected to secure a permanent role in Golden State’s starting lineup. While rumors of him taking 8 three-pointers per game may be exaggerated, Podziemski is clearly being groomed as an additional playmaker for the Warriors. As the team’s stars age, his role should grow, and he could become a major contributor. Already ranked near the top 100 in fantasy rankings, Podziemski’s value will only rise as he solidifies his place in the team’s core.

Keon Ellis (SAC, SG)

Why He Could Break Out: Ellis finished the 2023/24 season strong, delivering impressive defensive performances that helped fantasy managers win their leagues. Heading into 2024/25, he’s rumored to be starting for the Kings, and as their best defensive specialist, he should see plenty of minutes. Even if his offensive role remains limited, Ellis’s 1.8 steals per game and overall defensive impact could push him into the top 100 in fantasy basketball. His ADP of 148 offers tremendous sleeper value, and any improvement on offense would only further boost his rankings. For managers seeking defense and upside late in drafts, Ellis is a fantastic option.

Players to Avoid

These players come with significant risks, whether due to age, injury history, or inflated ADP. Drafting them at their current value could lead to disappointment, so approach with caution.

Kevin Durant (PHX, SF/PF)

Why to Avoid: Durant started the 2023/24 season at an MVP level but struggled to maintain that form after the All-Star break, dropping out of the top 40 in fantasy production. At 35 years old, Durant’s injury concerns are increasing, and with an ADP of 16, his draft position carries significant risk. Our rankings place him at 30, which better reflects the potential for missed games and his reduced role in Phoenix’s star-heavy lineup. While Durant is still an elite player on a per-game basis, the likelihood of missed time makes him a risky second-round pick for fantasy managers.

Jusuf Nurkic (PHX, C)

Why to Avoid: Nurkic’s injury history makes him a risky mid-round pick, despite his relatively healthy first season in Phoenix. His ADP of 81 is significantly higher than his ranking of 135, as there’s a real possibility he could lose his starting role to Mason Plumlee, a more reliable option. While Nurkic can contribute in rebounds and blocks, his role and health concerns make him a risky selection. If you’re drafting a center in the middle rounds, there are safer options available than Nurkic.

Kawhi Leonard (LAC, SF)

Why to Avoid: Leonard remains one of the most productive players in fantasy on a per-game basis, capable of delivering top 5 production when healthy. However, his chronic injury concerns and constant load management make him one of the riskiest players to draft in the early rounds. His ADP of 42 reflects the balance between his elite production and missed games, but with Leonard’s history of being sidelined, it’s difficult to rely on him for a full season. If you’re looking for stability in your top 50 picks, Leonard’s injury risk makes him a gamble you may want to avoid.

Conclusion

The Pacific Division is packed with fantasy talent, from established stars like James Harden and LeBron James to emerging breakout candidates like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. However, caution is necessary when drafting riskier players like Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard, whose age and injury concerns could derail your fantasy team. By targeting reliable players and identifying breakout opportunities, you can build a winning fantasy roster for the 2024/25 season.

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