Yahoo has released and updated their rankings, and for the most part it is looking fairly stable. However, there are definitely some value picks that you can exploit, as I find that the ADPs are heavily influenced by how Yahoo pre-ranks their players. I have made a list of guys that are ranked well below where they should be and should provide excellent value if you can get them in that range.
Devin Booker at 38: I had to double check the rankings to make sure that it was legit, and it is in fact is where they have him ranked. Booker anywhere after the end of round 2 is good value, so if you can get him at the start of round 4 as ranked, that would be stellar value. His numbers are eerily similar to that of Damian Lillard when he plays, so he’s a no brainer at this ranking. Yes there are definitely injury concerns, but at #38 he’s well worth the risk.
Clint Capela at 46: He’s had two top-30 finishes in a row in overall value, so he’s definitely a value where he’s ranked. Yes, we all know Westy is coming to town and will take away rebounds from everyone. However, consider the fact that Capela now has two elite play-making guards to throw him lobs instead of one. With all the attention that Westbrook and Harden will command, along with the extra lobs, Capela should improve on his already stellar FG. I don’t believe that his points total will be affected, as Westbrook has shown that he’s willing to defer his scoring if needed. Capela is headed for another top 30 finish, so he’s a solid 3rd rounder that you can get in the 4th or 5th.
LaMarcus Aldridge at 53: Yet another ranking where I had to do a double take to make sure it’s real. LMA has finished in the top 20 the last two seasons, so it blows my mind why he’s sliding so much in the rankings. Yes I know that he’s one year older, and Murray is back to take some usage away, but LMA is still an elite player and should go somewhere in the 3rd round in 12-team leagues. In the mocks that I have done, it looks like people are picking him in the 40s, so he should still be a good value pick in your draft this year.
Thomas Bryant at 64: Not a massive value here, but still pretty good as I usually like to pick him around the 50s range. In the mocks that I’ve done, he’s been available into the 70s which would make him a great pick. Yes, he is unproven and hasn’t played big minutes, but he has very little competition at Center and should get all the minutes he can handle. He’s one of the rare guys who can get you blocks and 3s, while doing so with great efficiency (FG, FT, TOs). I fully expect him to take a huge step forward this year and get himself into the top 50 overall.
Jonas Valancunias at 65: I have to admit that I am in love with JV this year, and the fact that Yahoo ranks him at 65 makes me very happy. I’ve picked him as high as 36th, and would be glad to grab him around pick 50. To have him ranked a few rounds later than where I have him means that he will probably be on all my teams this year. He’s been able to carve out top 50(ish) value the last few years playing well less than 25 minutes a game, so that’s his floor. If the Grizz decide to play him 30 minutes a night, then you have yourself an absolute stud. Start looking his way in the 40s, and if you can get him in the 60s then you probably need to find yourself a more competitive league.
Steven Adams at 76: Yet another big that I like to target around pick 50, and he’s usually available in the 70s in the mock drafts. He’s turned in two top-50 seasons in a row, so you can expect that to be his floor this year. With Westbrook leaving town, I can see Adams getting a few more boards a game. He’s one of the best screeners in the league, so this is a match made in heaven with Chris Paul. I can see him scoring a few more points and getting even more easy baskets playing alongside CP3. It’s a bold prediction but I think he will approach Andre Drummond-like stats, with numbers around 16-13 with steals, blocks, and stellar FG. I don’t care if you’re not punting FTs, if he’s there in the 70s be sure to pick him up.
Ricky Rubio at 82: I am sky high on Rubio this year, and he will probably be on all my teams. There is definitely a shutdown risk, but Rubio comes into a system that is perfect for his game. Surrounded by excellent finishers like Booker, Ayton, and Oubre, he should be able to improve on his assists numbers to go along with his usual multi-cat goodness and elite steals. He’s also added a three point shot to his game, so that’s no longer a weakness for him. A starting lineup of Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric, and Ayton should do some serious damage in the West, and perhaps Rubio is the leader they needed to steer the ship for the young Suns. I think he will have a career year this season, and the Suns will surprise a lot of people. I fully expect Rubio to return top 50 value, which makes him a no brainer pick where he’s ranked.
Domantas Sabonis at 87: He’s set to be in a starting role this year, so I’d be happy to get him him around the 60s range. He managed to go 14-9-3 playing less than 25 minutes a game, so you can imagine what his numbers will be like at 30 minutes a game, as he’s supposed to get this year. He’s a double double machine with elite FG and decent FTs, and his passing numbers are very good for a big. Would be nice if he had more defensive stats and a 3 point shot, but you really can’t argue with this value if you missed out on the early Centers.
Danny Green at 115: He is wildly inconsistent, and will drive you crazy from game to game. However he still managed to finish in the top 60 in overall value last year, and steps into a better situation this year. Green is expected to play 30 minutes a game this year, which would be a career high for him. He makes his living playing off of star players, and with respect to Duncan and Kawhi, there are no better star players to feed off than AD and Lebron. Green will get more open looks and more defensive opportunities due to the attention that Lebron and AD will command on both ends of the court. Add this to his increased playing time and you have yourself a severely underrated stud. He’s been going around the 100 mark in mocks, which would be a fantastic value if you can get him there in your real draft.
Bojan Bogdanovic at 117: Not a huge value pick, but a value pick nonetheless. I find in the mocks people usually don’t look his way even after his ranking of 117. The Jazz gave him a massive contract and a starting role, so there is reason to believe that he can replicate and even improve on his season last year. He’s a perfect fit on the court with Gobert, as the Jazz are in great need of outside shooting. He shot 49.7% from the field last year, which is pretty rare and valuable from a wing player. He might actually be able to do better than that this year playing with the Jazz. He’s a great pick anywhere near the 100 mark.
I’m sure Yahoo will update their rankings again closer to the start of the season, but as it stands these are the picks that stood out to me. There are definitely others that deserved to be on this list, so I’d love to hear your thoughts on this if I missed anyone.Posted in Strategy