The Southeast Division is home to some of the NBA’s most exciting up-and-coming stars as well as established veterans, making it a critical area of focus for fantasy basketball managers. Below, we dive into three key categories of players: Players to Watch, Breakout Candidates, and Players to Avoid to help guide your fantasy basketball drafts this season.

Players to Watch

These are the players who are expected to perform at a high level throughout the 2024/25 season. Their consistency, proven track record, and key roles on their teams make them must-watch targets in any fantasy basketball draft.

LaMelo Ball (CHA, PG)

What to Watch For: LaMelo Ball has the potential to be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts this season. Despite playing just 58 games over the last two seasons due to injuries, which has dropped his ADP to 23.5, he remains an elite fantasy asset when healthy. Ball excels in the hardest-to-find categories at the top of the draft: points (23.9), assists (8.0), and steals (1.81). With Charlotte expected to play at one of the fastest paces in the league, Ball’s production could skyrocket, making him a potential league-winner if selected outside the top 20. His combination of production in key areas, along with a fast-paced offense, could propel your fantasy team to the top.

Jalen Johnson (ATL, SF/PF)

What to Watch For: Jalen Johnson is on the cusp of a breakout season after flashing his immense potential during the injury-shortened 2023/24 campaign. Now healthy, Johnson is expected to take on a larger role in Atlanta’s future. He’s projected to average 17.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, with strong contributions in steals (1.23) and blocks (1.0) per game. Long term, Johnson could develop into a top-20 to 25 fantasy player with the ability to put up 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and solid defensive stats. His current ADP doesn’t yet reflect his potential, making him a great value pick outside the top 35 in drafts.

Jordan Poole (WAS, SG)

What to Watch For: Jordan Poole’s start in Washington was rocky, and he quickly became the subject of jokes rather than being recognized for his performance. However, in the last six weeks of the 2023/24 season, Poole quietly delivered top-50 fantasy roto production. His current ADP of 88.9 is shockingly low, especially considering that he provides solid contributions in points (21.5), assists (5.27), and three-pointers (3.1)—categories that are tough to find outside the top 50 in fantasy drafts. Selecting underappreciated players like Poole, who deliver solid production, is a smart strategy in any fantasy draft.

Breakout Candidates

These are the players with significant upside, who are primed to take their game to the next level in 2024/25. Whether they are entering larger roles or showing signs of improving production, these breakout candidates have the potential to greatly exceed their current draft position.

Brandon Miller (CHA, SF)

Why He Could Break Out: Brandon Miller had a fantastic rookie season in Charlotte, showcasing himself as a future NBA star despite the chaos within the team. Though his efficiency and decision-making still needed refinement, he managed to establish himself as a top-70 fantasy player after the All-Star break. Entering his sophomore season, Miller will finally have a chance to play alongside a high-level point guard in LaMelo Ball, who will provide him with plenty of easy scoring opportunities. With Charlotte’s fast-paced playstyle, Miller is primed for a major leap forward in his development. Given his ADP of 65, selecting him is a safe decision, and there’s a strong chance he will produce like a top-40 player by season’s end.

Dyson Daniels (ATL, SG)

Why He Could Break Out: After two seasons with the Pelicans, Dyson Daniels will get a fresh start in Atlanta, where his defensive prowess perfectly complements Trae Young’s offensive firepower. Daniels is not expected to be a top scorer or provide many three-pointers, but his defensive stats, efficiency, and rebounding ability give him a chance to break into the top 100 in fantasy basketball. If he can secure 30 minutes per game, Daniels is almost certain to deliver strong defensive numbers, potentially averaging 2 steals per game in the Hawks’ system. His ADP of 145 makes him one of the most intriguing sleepers in fantasy drafts, well worth the risk in the later rounds.

Franz Wagner (ORL, SF)

Why He Could Break Out: Franz Wagner is widely viewed as a top-50 fantasy candidate, reflected by his ADP of 46. While drafting Wagner at this spot carries some risk, it’s also balanced by his potential. Wagner would have likely performed at this level last season if not for an inexplicable drop in his three-point shooting, falling from 36% in his first two seasons to just 28% last year. This decline hurt both the Magic in the playoffs and the German national team at the World Cup. If Wagner bounces back to his previous shooting form, cracking the top 50 will be no problem for him, and his ceiling could even be 20 spots higher. However, if you don’t believe his shooting slump was a fluke, you may want to reconsider and move him to the Players to Avoid category.

Players to Avoid

While these players might seem appealing based on name recognition or past performance, there are red flags surrounding their fantasy outlooks. Whether it’s inflated ADP, role uncertainty, or declining stats, these players carry enough risk to consider avoiding in your drafts.

Paolo Banchero (ORL, PF)

Why to Avoid: Despite his incredible talent, Paolo Banchero’s ADP of 34.4 may be too high for what he offers in fantasy. He’s projected to average 24.6 points and 7.6 rebounds, but his high-volume 46.8% field goal percentage and high turnover rate (2.8 TO per game) make him a risk in roto leagues. Additionally, his lack of defensive stats (0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks per game) limits his overall fantasy value. While Banchero will continue to develop as a player, his inflated draft position means fantasy managers should be cautious about overpaying based on hype.

Jalen Duren (CHA, C)

Why to Avoid: Duren has shown flashes of immense potential, but his ADP of 54 might be too optimistic given the uncertainty surrounding his playing time. While Duren is projected to average 13.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks, Detroit’s crowded frontcourt could limit him to 26-29 minutes per game. This reduced playing time would hamper his ability to consistently deliver top-tier fantasy production. Safer center options exist within the top 60, making Duren a riskier pick with role uncertainty hanging over him.

Bam Adebayo (MIA, C)

Why to Avoid: Adebayo remains a fantastic player in real life, but his fantasy value has declined in recent years. With an ADP of 32.1, Adebayo may not provide enough production to justify such a high draft pick. He’s projected to average 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds, but his declining defensive stats (0.92 blocks, 1.14 steals) and 52.1% field goal percentage limit his ceiling. Additionally, his assists have fallen to 3.9 per game, which used to make him stand out among centers. There are more reliable options in the early rounds who offer higher upside and consistency.

Conclusion

The Southeast Division has a mix of established players and rising stars, making it a critical area of focus for fantasy basketball managers. Players like LaMelo Ball and Jordan Poole are set to deliver significant value, while breakout candidates like Brandon Miller and Franz Wagner could push your team to the next level. Meanwhile, cautious picks like Paolo Banchero and Bam Adebayo may pose risks that outweigh their current ADP. Draft smartly by identifying these trends and securing the right players for your 2024/25 fantasy season.

 

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