The Northwest Division is loaded with high-upside young talent and a mix of proven stars, making it a prime area for fantasy basketball managers to target. Here’s a detailed look at Players to Watch, Breakout Candidates, and Players to Avoid for the upcoming season, providing you with the insights needed to win your fantasy league.

Players to Watch

These players are expected to deliver elite fantasy value this season, contributing across multiple categories and anchoring your fantasy team’s success.

Bradley Beal (PHX, SG)

What to Watch For: Beal had a strong first season in Phoenix and, once his health issues were addressed, he played at a top-50 roto level. This season, Beal will benefit from playing alongside a true point guard in Tyus Jones, who should improve Beal’s efficiency and reduce turnovers. Projected to average 18+ points, 4+ rebounds, 4+ assists, and 2 three-pointers per game, Beal is positioned to outperform his ADP of 74.4. With improved shooting percentages and fewer mistakes, Beal offers strong value as a mid-round pick, providing consistent production across the board.

Jalen Williams (OKC, SG/SF)

What to Watch For: In his second season with Oklahoma City, Jalen Williams has cemented himself as one of the most promising young talents in fantasy basketball. Despite sharing the court with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams was one of the most clutch performers in the NBA during the fourth quarter of games. Williams is developing into a well-rounded contributor in every fantasy category, particularly excelling in efficiency with his impressive 52% field goal percentage. However, it’s important to temper expectations if he’s drafted inside the top 20, as he may underdeliver in per-game stats. The addition of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso could also reduce his rebounding numbers and slightly impact his minutes. Still, Williams’ durability and ability to consistently contribute in totals make him a better target for roto leagues than H2H formats.

Chet Holmgren (OKC, PF/C)

What to Watch For: After missing his first season due to injury, Holmgren returned and immediately showed why he’s considered a future fantasy superstar. His balanced production across all categories, including 2.3 blocks per game, makes him a rare fantasy asset. In his second season, Holmgren is expected to play more minutes than the 29 minutes per game he logged last year, and his ability to hit 1.6 three-pointers per game adds significant value. With Isaiah Hartenstein joining the team as the starting center, Holmgren will likely spend more time at power forward, which could lead to an increase in three-point attempts but a potential dip in rebounds and field goal percentage. Holmgren’s top-10 per-game upside is real, but drafting him within the top 20 could carry some risk due to Oklahoma’s unpredictable rotations. He’s a steal if he falls outside the top 20 in your draft.

Breakout Candidates

These players have shown flashes of their potential and are poised to take significant leaps in production this season. Their upside makes them valuable targets in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Taylor Hendricks (UTA, PF)

Why He Could Break Out: Hendricks began showing his potential once he secured a stable role in the Jazz rotation. He’s shaping up to be the type of player that fantasy managers love—a contributor in three-pointers, steals, and blocks, all while providing solid rebounds and efficiency from the field. As the Jazz are likely to shift toward developing their younger players after the All-Star break, Hendricks could find himself in an expanded role. In the second half of the season, he could become a crucial fantasy asset, especially in roto leagues, where his balanced production can carry managers through the playoffs. His ability to rack up defensive stats makes him a sleeper pick who could help win leagues in the later rounds.

Keyonte George (UTA, PG/SG)

Why He Could Break Out: George, like Hendricks, could become a major factor in the second half of the season, when the Jazz may give their younger players more responsibility. In the first half, George is a solid pick, but his upside truly shines later in the season, particularly in H2H leagues when playoff positioning is critical. He has the potential to develop into a better playmaker than Bradley Beal in his prime years with the Wizards. However, George’s stat profile is also reminiscent of Jordan Clarkson, meaning fantasy managers can expect plenty of points, assists, and good free-throw percentages, but a lack of production in rebounds and defensive stats, along with poor field goal percentage and turnovers. He’s an excellent late-round flier but should be avoided in teams that are focusing on FG% and TO categories. George is a better fit for H2H leagues where his scoring and assists can carry a team.

Shaedon Sharpe (POR, SG/SF)

Why He Could Break Out: Sharpe has had an uneven start to his NBA career, but his flashes of brilliance make him a high-upside pick in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. With the Blazers likely to rest veterans as they tank for a top draft pick (possibly Cooper Flagg), Sharpe’s minutes and usage should increase dramatically as the season progresses. His elite athleticism and shot-making ability give him the tools to become a major fantasy contributor, especially in points leagues. Sharpe is a great flier in the later rounds, with the potential to become a top-75 player in the season final months, making him a potential steal for managers looking for upside.

Players to Avoid

These players come with significant risks due to their inflated ADP, injury concerns, or uncertain roles. Drafting them at their current value could result in disappointment and missed opportunities for upside.

Anthony Edwards (MIN, SG/SF)

Why to Avoid: Edwards is undeniably one of the most exciting players to watch in the NBA. His incredible athleticism and on-court swagger often draw comparisons to Michael Jordan, but when it comes to fantasy basketball, the hype around Edwards may be getting out of hand. Despite an impressive real-life season in 2023/24, where he played some phenomenal basketball, Edwards finished as only the 37th-ranked fantasy player. His fantasy stat line—while solid—lacks the elite contributions in multiple categories that would justify his ADP of 10.3. Most of his fantasy value last season came from playing 79 games, which significantly boosted his totals. However, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat such high availability, and if he plays fewer games, Edwards could struggle to maintain his value. With limited room for improvement in his statistical profile (outside of possibly field goal percentage and assists), Edwards is a risky pick in the first round or early second. He’s a no-brainer in the late 20s or early 30s, but drafting him at his current ADP offers little to no upside.

Lauri Markkanen (UTA, PF)

Why to Avoid: Markkanen is one of the most beloved players in fantasy circles due to his all-around game and the production he delivers per game. However, the major concern with Markkanen isn’t his talent—it’s his availability in the second half of the season. There’s a strong possibility that the Jazz could sideline him for stretches after the All-Star break to focus on developing younger talent, which could severely hurt his value during the fantasy playoffs. While Markkanen should deliver top-20 per-game production, his totals might take a hit, particularly in head-to-head leagues. His ADP of 30.3 is reasonable, but drafting him in the top 15 (as many managers have done) carries too much risk, especially for a player who might be limited in the most critical part of the fantasy season. He’s a great value pick if he falls outside the top 30, but inside the top 20, Markkanen becomes a risky proposition.

Jerami Grant (POR, PF)

Why to Avoid: Grant’s situation is tricky—he’s a talented player, but his fantasy production often falls short of preseason expectations. As Portland enters a rebuilding phase, Grant is at risk of being sidelined toward the end of the season as the team prioritizes giving minutes to younger players like Shaedon Sharpe and Keyonte George. Additionally, with the potential for a midseason trade, Grant’s role could become even more uncertain depending on his destination. His ADP of 108.1 offers some room for upside, but it’s not enough to make him an enticing pick. At this stage of the draft (9th or 10th round), managers should be targeting reliable players or high-upside breakout candidates. Unfortunately, Grant doesn’t fit either category, and his role in Portland’s evolving rotation makes him a player to avoid. Let your rivals take the gamble on him while you focus on safer or more promising picks.

Conclusion

The Northwest Division is home to a blend of rising stars and potential landmines for fantasy basketball managers. While players like Bradley Beal and Jalen Williams offer solid production and consistency, breakout candidates such as Tylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, and Shaedon Sharpe provide significant upside, particularly in the second half of the season. However, managers should be cautious with players like Anthony Edwards, Lauri Markkanen, and Jerami Grant, whose ADP and situational risks could lead to disappointment. By targeting the right mix of safe picks and high-upside players, you can position your team for success in the 2024/25 fantasy season.

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