Fantasy Review For 2018/19 Season:
The season started like a nightmare with a complete fiasco of Carmelo Anthony experiment and only 11 wins in 25 games… what’s more, Chris Paul suffered another injury and soon the same happened to Clint Capela and Eric Gordon. For the while their team was build of James Harden and a bunch of borderline rotation players, but thanks to Harden’s genius they not only survived, but also pulled off a winning streak, winning 21 out of 29 next games. Unfortunately in playoffs they suffered another heartbreaking loss to Warriors and it became obvious that this roster needs a change.
Changes in the offseason
Lost = Chris Paul, Kenneth Faried, Iman Shumpert,
Added = Russell Westbrook, Ray Spalding, Thabo Sefolosha, Ben McLemore, Tyson Chandler, Ryan Anderson
The Rockets season was marked by a slow, but steady decline of Chris Paul. At the end, Houston willingness to trade him for a younger star, couldn’t be less surprising.
Projected Depth Chart:
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
| Russell Westbrook | James Harden | Eric Gordon | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela |
| Austin Rivers | Ben McLemore | Danuel House | Gary Clark | Tyson Chandler |
| Shamorie Ponds | Gerald Green | Thabo Sefolosha | Isaiah Hartenstein | Nene Hilario |
Positional Battles: None
It is hard to imagine more of a set in stone core-5. Even if Eric Gordon doesn’t start at small forward, he would be playing a functionable starter minutes there. Behind starting five there are only two players that are rotation locks – Austin Rivers and Danuel House.
Fantasy Relevant in leagues with 12- to 15-teams:
After being first ever to attempt more than 10 three pointers and 10 free throws per game in 2017/18 campaign, Harden brought this to another level with 13.2 3PTA and 11FTA per game. 11-11 club, huh? Also he performed 1280 isolation plays, more than any other TEAM in the NBA, scoring amazing 1.11 point per possesion on that play type. I don’t think he can get any better than this, but the same assumptions were made last year. He is the very best fantasy player in h2h or punt-TO builds.
How will he fare playing as a second option for the first time in few years, and a secondary ballhandler for the first time… maybe in his career? It is easy to assume that his counting stats will fell off the cliff and his efficiency will raise a bit. In fact, there is a small chance for breakout there… or maybe call it better a bounce back year, as his shooting woes might all be connected to the league prohibiting his three throw routine, which caused some confidence issues. If the Rockets find a way to fix his problems from the stripe, they migh solve all of his recent shooting problems, including three point shot. I think that there is approximately 30% chance of this happening, and if so, Russ may visit top20 per game once again in his career.
He has established himself as a top20 fantasy player the last two seasons, making a steady progress every year, ever since he joined the league. And now, somehow he is being commonly drafted outside the top40, with me being no better and also dropping him noticeably in the rankings. Why so? I guess it has something to do with Russell Westbrook stealing his rebounds and maybe also with a huge amount of good big man available in 4o to 70 range this season. However, outside top50 he should still be considered a heavy steal.
Ever since he plays for Houston he is in that 30-32 mpg range with around 3.2 threes per game, playing mostly as a Sixth man and a scoring punch. This year his role changes, as he projects as a teams starting Small Forward and a primary defender for opposing backcourt stars. Due to that, he may achieve career high in threes and career low in FG influence: 4 threes per game on 41-42% shooting with 14FGA are in his range.
Elite steals, threes and TOs specialist, with some rebounds potential. Those are quite common goods so he shouldn’t be drafted nowhere near Top100, but in the later parts of the draft he must be considered a high level specialist, who’s auction price might came out a bit surprising while the competitors would be rounding up their rosters.
Could be useful with trades/injuries [or in deeper leagues than 15 teams]:
Danuel House, Ben McLemore, Isaiah Hartenstein
Just don’t bother with:
Austin Rivers, Thabo Sefolosha, Tyson Chandler, Gary Clark
Don’t forget to check the rest of the Houston Rockets fantasy basketball projections.
Posted in Teams preview