The Southwest Division is stacked with talent, from established stars to rising superstars. This season, it will play a pivotal role for fantasy basketball managers. Below is a breakdown of the Players to Watch, Breakout Candidates, and Players to Avoid for the 2024/25 season, giving you the insights needed to make smart decisions in your fantasy drafts.

Players to Watch

These players are expected to deliver strong fantasy value this season, contributing across multiple categories. They are key targets in your draft with potential to outperform their current ADP.

Fred VanVleet (HOU, PG)

What to Watch For: VanVleet remains one of the most underrated players in fantasy basketball. After joining the Houston Rockets, there were concerns he might take a backseat to allow younger players to develop, but VanVleet finished last season as the 18th-ranked player per game and 14th in totals. Yet, somehow, his ADP of 38.6 suggests fantasy managers are still underestimating him. Even with a slightly reduced role, our projections show that he should still be around the 23rd-ranked player, with potential to exceed that mark. Despite his subpar FG% (below 42%), VanVleet delivers balanced production across the board: 17 points, 3 threes, and 7.8 assists, along with just 1.7 turnovers. He also provides impressive defensive stats, especially for a smaller guard, with 1.3 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. This makes VanVleet a reliable fantasy contributor, valuable in both head-to-head and roto leagues. If he falls outside the top 30 in your draft, the only logical choice is to grab him.

Victor Wembanyama (SAS, PF/C)

What to Watch For: Wembanyama came into the NBA with sky-high expectations, and as a rookie, he exceeded them. Now, in his second season, Wembanyama projects as one of the best fantasy basketball players for years to come. His ability to contribute in every category—while delivering elite defensive production—makes him a potential generational talent. Despite cautious projections, such as 48% FG, 1.5 steals, and 3.8 blocks, Wembanyama is already ranked as the top player in many fantasy formats. In most auctions, his price surpasses $80, and he could still provide significant upside. If he improves his field goal percentage to 50%, adds another rebound or two, and edges closer to 2 steals and over 4 blocks per game, Wembanyama could have one of the most dominant fantasy seasons in history. His ceiling is truly limitless, and he’s already showing improvements in playmaking, with potential for over 5 assists per game in the future. Wembanyama is an easy top pick in drafts, and he’s worth every bit of the investment.

Zion Williamson (NOP, PF)

What to Watch For: Zion Williamson remains one of the most thrilling yet high-risk players in fantasy basketball. When healthy, he’s projected to average 25.1 points, 6.9  rebounds, 5.2 assists, and shoot an elite 59% from the field. His efficiency and ability to fill up the stat sheet make him an invaluable fantasy asset. He even started to produce solid defensive stats and his free throws aren’t that hurting anymore. However, his injury history and the risk of missing extended stretches of the season can’t be ignored. Zion’s ADP of 47.0 reflects his risk/reward nature. If he can stay healthy for most of the season, Zion has the potential to be a league-winner, especially in points and head 2 head leagues, where he is an elite asset. Managers drafting him need to have a contingency plan for potential missed games, but if he stays on the court, Zion will be a fantasy force.

Breakout Candidates

These players have immense upside and are poised for breakout seasons. With their rising potential, they could become key contributors and offer tremendous value in the later rounds of drafts.

Amen Thompson (HOU, PG/SG)

Why He Could Break Out: After a challenging start to his rookie season, Amen Thompson found his footing in the second half, showcasing his elite potential. Post All-Star break, Thompson was already performing like a top-80 fantasy player, offering balanced contributions with strong rebounding, defensive stats, and an efficient FG%. His role as a playmaker will likely grow, as he originally played as a point guard before entering the NBA. This means his 3 assists per game could significantly increase as his role expands in Houston. Currently ranked 86th in fantasy projections, Thompson is projected to shoot 9 times per game, but there’s plenty of upside for him to reach top-60 status by the end of his second season. His ADP of 117.4 makes him one of the best late-round steals, with the only thing holding him back being his subpar shooting. If his shooting improves, Thompson’s value could skyrocket.

Jeremy Sochan (SAS, PF)

Why He Could Break Out: Sochan has looked fantastic during the preseason of his third NBA season, and with Chris Paul orchestrating the offense and Victor Wembanyama taking defensive attention away, Sochan is poised to see a significant increase in efficiency. His versatility across multiple categories makes him an attractive fantasy pick, and his ADP of 142 offers a ton of upside for managers looking for a breakout candidate. Projected to average 13.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.1 steals, Sochan is in an excellent position to take a big leap in production. He’s one of the most intriguing late-round fliers in fantasy basketball and could easily outperform his ADP.

Derrick Lively II (DAL, C)

Why He Could Break Out: After an impressive showing in the playoffs during his rookie season, Lively seems to be winning the battle for minutes over Daniel Gafford with the Dallas Mavericks. His projected production—9.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks—is valuable for any fantasy team, especially in roto leagues. While his poor free-throw shooting is a notable drawback, Lively has an underrated ability as a passer, particularly after pick-and-roll situations, where he could become a secondary playmaker in 4-on-3 situations. If his assist numbers rise from 1.3 to around 3, he could see a significant boost in fantasy value. With an ADP of 108.4, Lively is a fantastic pick for managers seeking rebounds, blocks, and FG%, and he could quickly climb the rankings with more minutes.

Players to Avoid

These players come with significant risks, whether due to injury concerns, inefficiency, or inflated ADP. Drafting them at their current value could hurt your fantasy team more than help it.

Ja Morant (MEM, PG)

Why to Avoid: Despite putting his off-court issues behind him, Morant’s playing style makes him susceptible to injury, as he often falls hard on the court in uncontrolled ways. Morant is one of the most electrifying players in the league, consistently delivering strong production in points and assists with good efficiency. However, he lacks contributions in threes, rebounds, and defensive stats, and his turnovers are high. This makes Morant regularly underperform relative to his ADP in fantasy drafts. With a current ADP of 35.2, Morant’s upside is limited, and his risk of injury is significant. Without meaningful contributions in key categories like steals and threes, he’s unlikely to crack the top 50 in fantasy production. Drafting him this early doesn’t provide upside and comes with considerable risk.

Jalen Green (HOU, SG)

Why to Avoid: Green is an explosive but inefficient scorer who provides little value outside of points. While he had a brief stretch at the end of last season where he played like a top-20 fantasy player, that seems to have been an anomaly. In reality, Green is projected to regress back to his typical inefficient production, making him a player worth considering only in the later rounds. His ADP of 95 is far too high, and managers who select him there are likely to be disappointed. Green ranks 140th in our 9-cat projections, offering value only in points leagues or H2H formats where his inefficiency in shooting and turnovers won’t hurt as much. Let your competitors waste a pick on him and look for more well-rounded options.

Brandon Ingram (NOP, SF/PF)

Why to Avoid: Ingram has never been as valuable a fantasy player as many managers expect, and recent reports suggest he’s no longer wanted in New Orleans. Despite frequent appearances in trade rumors, no team has shown serious interest in acquiring him. Ingram finished last season as the 84th-ranked fantasy player, and even without Zion Williamson on the court, he struggled to reach his ADP projection. With a crowded Pelicans rotation that includes Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy, Ingram’s role is likely to diminish further. His ADP of 70.8 offers no upside, and unless he falls outside the top 90, Ingram is best left for other managers to take. There’s also the risk of a midseason trade, which could further decrease his fantasy relevance.

Conclusion

The Southwest Division is packed with both high-upside picks and potential traps for fantasy managers. While Fred VanVleet and Victor Wembanyama offer elite production and Amen Thompson and Jeremy Sochan provide excellent late-round upside, caution should be exercised with players like Ja Morant, Jalen Green, and Brandon Ingram, whose ADP far outweighs their actual value. Understanding which players to target and which to avoid will help you build a competitive roster for the 2024/25 fantasy basketball season.

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