As the 2024/25 NBA season approaches, the Central Division is packed with intriguing fantasy options. Whether you’re looking for high-potential breakout stars or veterans to avoid, this guide highlights players to watch, breakout candidates, and players to steer clear of on draft day. These insights will help you make smart decisions and maximize your fantasy success this season.

Players to Watch

Evan Mobley (CLE, PF/C)

What to Watch For: Mobley is on the verge of becoming one of the NBA’s top big men, especially after thriving as Cleveland’s center during recent playoffs. His ability to rebound, block shots, and score efficiently has improved dramatically in this role. With Kenny Atkinson taking over as head coach, Mobley’s offensive development should accelerate, as Atkinson is known for maximizing young talent. JB Bickerstaff struggled to fully utilize Mobley in the offense, but Atkinson’s fresh ideas could help Mobley unlock his full potential. Expect Mobley to continue growing as a versatile force and potentially climb higher in fantasy rankings.

Damian Lillard (MIL, PG)

What to Watch For: Lillard’s first season with the Bucks didn’t go as planned, with struggles both on and off the court. Adjusting to new teammates, a new city and personal issues weighed him down. However, this season offers a fresh start. After a full offseason with Doc Rivers as his coach and more stability in his personal life, Lillard is set to remind everyone why he’s still one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league. Playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and a more familiar system, Lillard is poised to return to elite fantasy form. Expect him to bounce back and produce at the high level we’ve come to expect.

Tobias Harris (DET, SF/PF)

What to Watch For: Harris returns to the Detroit Pistons, where he will take on a much larger offensive role compared to his recent years with the 76ers. With Detroit, Harris could be the leading scorer in many games, especially with a more significant usage rate. His ADP of 68.8 makes him a steal considering he was a top-50 fantasy player last year. Harris may not be the flashiest pick, but his consistency and reliability make him one of the best-value players available. Often underrated due to his “boring” label in fantasy, Harris is a solid and dependable option for managers looking for stability.

Breakout Candidates (Under 25)

Cade Cunningham (DET, PG/SG)

Why He Could Break Out: After a tough start to his career marred by injuries, Cunningham is finally entering a season fully healthy and ready to show the league what he can do. He’s had a pain-free offseason to prepare for what may be the most critical year of his career. Now, under a more competent coaching staff and surrounded by veteran shooters like Malik Beasley, Simone Fontecchio, Tobias Harris, and Tim Hardaway Jr., Cunningham will have the floor spacing he needs to thrive. With the Pistons roster finally making sense around him, he’s poised to showcase the significant progress he made last season despite the team’s dysfunctional build and system. Expect him to leap in playmaking and scoring, with the potential to break into the top 30 in fantasy basketball.

Josh Giddey (CHI, PG/SG)

Why He Could Break Out: Giddey gets a fresh start with the Chicago Bulls after being traded from Oklahoma City. Chicago values him, having sent fan-favorite Alex Caruso in a deal to acquire him. Surrounded by fast, athletic players like Coby White, Zach LaVine, Matas Buzelis, and Jalen Smith, Giddey’s playmaking abilities will shine. He has the potential to be a walking triple-double in this new environment, and his fantasy upside will depend largely on his defensive stats and shooting efficiency. If Giddey can improve in those areas, he has a long shot at cracking the top 50 fantasy players this season.

Isaiah Jackson (IND, PF/C)

Why He Could Break Out: With Jalen Smith out of Indiana, Isaiah Jackson finally has a clear path to more consistent playing time as the primary backup to Myles Turner. Jackson’s per-minute production is already elite, particularly in blocks and rebounds, and more minutes will only enhance his fantasy value. If Turner suffers an injury, Jackson could push for top-50 value in roto leagues, but even if Turner stays healthy, Jackson’s unique combination of rebounds, blocks, FG%, and respectable free-throw shooting makes him a strong candidate for the top 100. All he needs are regular minutes to shine in fantasy leagues.

Players to Avoid

Nikola Vucevic (CHI, C)

Why to Avoid: Vucevic is a solid fantasy player, but his best days are likely behind him. His current ADP of 54.7 is more than 30 spots higher than his position in our rankings, reflecting potential overvaluation. Vucevic’s minutes are at risk with Jalen Smith now on the roster, as Smith fits better with Chicago’s young core and potential fast-paced style. While Vucevic will still provide value in rebounds and points, his declining role and reduced defensive stats make him a very risky pick at his current draft position.

Darius Garland (CLE, PG)

Why to Avoid: Garland is a talented player, but his fantasy ceiling is capped by Donovan Mitchell’s presence, which limits his scoring opportunities and playmaking responsibilities. Garland finished outside the top 100 last season, and while Kenny Atkinson’s system may give him a slight boost, it’s unlikely to be enough to justify his ADP of 62. Drafting Garland at that spot offers little to no value, as he’s unlikely to deliver the kind of across-the-board production that top fantasy point guards provide.

Khris Middleton (MIL, SF/PF)

Why to Avoid: Injuries have taken a toll on Middleton, drastically reducing his minutes and impact. While he’s been more efficient than ever, the combination of a reduced role, fewer minutes, and a declining usage rate make him a far less appealing fantasy option. With Damian Lillard now taking on much of the offensive load, Middleton’s scoring opportunities will be even more limited. Though he’s still an effective player in real life, his days as a top-100 fantasy player are likely behind him, and managers should avoid overpaying based on past performances.

In conclusion, the Central Division offers a mix of high-upside breakout candidates like Cunningham and Giddey, reliable veterans like Harris, and some players to avoid like Vucevic and Middleton, who may no longer provide the value expected at their current ADP. Identifying these key trends will help fantasy managers make smarter draft decisions and build a winning roster for the 2024/25 season.

 

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